I know what you are thinking. How can the Buffalo Sabres miss the playoffs coming off a season in which they won 50 games, won the Atlantic Division and finally ended their 14-season playoff drought? But just hear me out here.
Buffalo’s season didn’t exactly start like a team that was going to win 50 games. On December 8, the Sabres were sitting at just 11-14-4 and it seemed like once again it would be the same old story. Despite having a roster capable of competing, Buffalo looked like it could be heading toward another season without playoff hockey.
Then everything changed. Buffalo won three straight games to improve to 14-14-4 before the Sabres made the decision on December 15 to fire not their head coach, but general manager Kevyn Adams, replacing him with Jarmo Kekäläinen.
The winning continued from there. Buffalo extended its winning streak to 10 games and completely turned its season around, eventually finishing 50-23-9 with 109 points, winning the Atlantic Division and making the playoffs for the first time since 2011.
Consistency Issues and an Improved Eastern Conference
Now, with all of last season’s stuff out of the way, let’s get into why the Sabres may just miss out on the playoffs this season.
The first reason I have is that Buffalo needed one massive turnaround to completely change its season. They can’t expect to do the same thing again this season. They need to show much more consistency from the beginning.
This has also been their biggest issue throughout their long playoff drought. They just couldn’t get consistent enough play across a full season and always seemed to fall apart at some point.
The second reason is that a lot of teams in the East, and most importantly teams within their division, made improvements to their rosters. Meanwhile, Buffalo didn’t make the type of massive addition you might expect from a team trying to build off a division-winning season.
Their biggest change came on defence, with Olen Zellweger coming over from Anaheim while Bowen Byram departed for Chicago. Buffalo also made some other additions, including Louis Crevier and Conor Sheary, but the biggest loss came up front. That was star forward Alex Tuch, who put up 33 goals and 33 assists for 66 points, finishing third on the Sabres in scoring.
Hole Left by Alex Tuch
That brings me to my third reason, and that is that the Sabres have failed to directly replace Tuch’s scoring production.
Since the Sabres didn’t bring anybody in who is capable of simply replacing Tuch’s 66 points, they must now find someone within their current team to try and fill that void.
The first option is Zach Benson, who is coming into his fourth NHL season after a career year with 13 goals, 30 assists and 43 points in just 65 games. He also had nine points in 13 playoff games and didn’t look out of place for one minute.
But it’s important to note that this would still be a massive step up for the 21-year-old if the Sabres were to put him on one of their top lines and expect significantly more production from him.
One of the more obvious and realistic options is Josh Doan. He will also be heading into his fourth NHL season and is coming off a career year with 25 goals, 27 assists and 52 points. He also skated alongside top centre Tage Thompson for a good amount of games last year, and it’s not far-fetched to think his point production could go up again next season with an increase in ice time, which could come after his playoff showing.
Another very realistic option is Jack Quinn, who is coming off a career year with 20 goals, 31 assists and 51 points while playing a career-high 82 games. A jump for Quinn is not unrealistic, with his production already not that far off from what Tuch put up last season.
Buffalo Goaltending
The last concern I have is Buffalo’s goaltending. My concern isn’t because I think their goaltenders suck or anything like that.
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen actually had a strong regular season, finishing with a .910 save percentage and a 2.52 goals-against average. However, his play became much more inconsistent during Buffalo’s playoff run, and there were moments where his confidence didn’t look nearly as strong as it had during the regular season.
The question now is whether he can put those performances behind him and get back to being the goalie Buffalo saw throughout most of last season.
Their other goalie is Alex Lyon, who also had a solid regular season, finishing with a .906 save percentage and a 2.77 goals-against average. Lyon also had some very strong moments during Buffalo’s playoff run.
The question with Lyon is how much Buffalo can rely on him if UPL struggles. He has experience handling stretches of heavier workloads, but he hasn’t established himself as a long-term undisputed No. 1 goalie in the NHL. If UPL struggles out of the gate, can Lyon handle a bigger workload?
Conclusion
The Sabres are heading into this season after winning a division title and making the playoffs for the first time in 14 seasons, and I feel like I shouldn’t have this many questions about them.
Can the Sabres find a way to be more consistent this season? Can they fill the role that Tuch is leaving behind? Can they keep pace with an Eastern Conference that has gotten better? And can their goaltending be consistently great again this year?
Well, in about a month’s time, we will find out just how good these Sabres really are.
